PandemieGrippaleV1, France, Analysis, bibRecord, 000007

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Identifieur interne : 000007 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000006; suivant : 000008

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Auteurs : Mircea T. Sofonea [France] ; Bastien Reyné ; Baptiste Elie [France] ; Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse [France] ; Christian Selinger [France] ; Yannis Michalakis [France] ; Samuel Alizon [France]

Source :

RBID : Hal:hal-02619546

English descriptors

mix :
- COVID-19, discrete time modelling, epidemiology, memory effects, non-pharmaceutical interventions, public health, reproduction number 1.

Abstract

10 SARS-Cov-2 virus has spread over the world creating one of the fastest pandemics ever. The absence of immunity, asymptomatic transmission, and the relatively high level of virulence of the COVID-19 infection it causes led to a massive flow of patients in intensive care units (ICU). This unprecedented situation calls for rapid and accurate mathematical models to best inform public health policies. We develop an original parsimonious model that accounts for the effect 15 of the age of infection on the natural history of the disease. Analysing the ongoing COVID-19 in France, we estimate the value of the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number (R 0), and the efficiency of the national control strategy. We then use our deterministic model to explore several scenarios posterior to lock-down lifting and compare the efficiency of non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) described in the literature. 20

Url:

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02619546

DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.22.20110593

Affiliations:

France

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

to stream Hal, to step Corpus: 000198
to stream Hal, to step Curation: 000198
to stream Hal, to step Checkpoint: 000008
to stream Main, to step Merge: 000007
to stream Main, to step Curation: 000007
to stream Main, to step Exploration: 000007
to stream France, to step Extraction: 000007

Links to Exploration step

Hal:hal-02619546

Le document en format XML

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          <orgName>Université de Montpellier</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UM</orgName>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>163 rue Auguste Broussonnet - 34090 Montpellier</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.umontpellier.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR5290" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>            <address>              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
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</tutelle>
<tutelle name="224" active="#struct-451860" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-451860" status="VALID">          <orgName>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">IRD [France-Sud]</orgName>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>911 avenue Agropolis,BP 6450134394 Montpellier cedex 5</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.france-sud.ird.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Alizon, Samuel" sort="Alizon, Samuel" uniqKey="Alizon S" first="Samuel" last="Alizon">Samuel Alizon</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="laboratory" xml:id="struct-166573" status="VALID">          <idno type="RNSR">201119437J</idno>
          <orgName>Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">MIVEGEC</orgName>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>911 Avenue Agropolis BP 64501 34394 Montpellier cedex 5</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.mivegec.ird.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
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        <tutelles><tutelle name="UMR5290" active="#struct-410122" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-410122" status="VALID">          <idno type="ISNI">0000000120970141</idno>
          <orgName>Université de Montpellier</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UM</orgName>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>163 rue Auguste Broussonnet - 34090 Montpellier</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.umontpellier.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="UMR5290" active="#struct-441569" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-441569" status="VALID">          <idno type="IdRef">02636817X</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000000122597504</idno>
          <orgName>Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">CNRS</orgName>
          <date type="start">1939-10-19</date>
          <desc>            <address>              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.cnrs.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
</tutelle>
<tutelle name="224" active="#struct-451860" type="direct"><org type="institution" xml:id="struct-451860" status="VALID">          <orgName>Institut de Recherche pour le Développement</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">IRD [France-Sud]</orgName>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>911 avenue Agropolis,BP 6450134394 Montpellier cedex 5</addrLine>
              <country key="FR"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.france-sud.ird.fr/</ref>
          </desc>
        </org>
</tutelle>
</tutelles>
</hal:affiliation>
<country>France</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<idno type="DOI">10.1101/2020.05.22.20110593</idno>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="mix" xml:lang="en"><term>COVID-19</term>
<term>discrete time modelling</term>
<term>epidemiology</term>
<term>memory effects</term>
<term>non-pharmaceutical interventions</term>
<term>public health</term>
<term>reproduction number 1</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">              <p>10 SARS-Cov-2 virus has spread over the world creating one of the fastest pandemics ever. The absence of immunity, asymptomatic transmission, and the relatively high level of virulence of the COVID-19 infection it causes led to a massive flow of patients in intensive care units (ICU). This unprecedented situation calls for rapid and accurate mathematical models to best inform public health policies. We develop an original parsimonious model that accounts for the effect 15 of the age of infection on the natural history of the disease. Analysing the ongoing COVID-19 in France, we estimate the value of the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number (R 0), and the efficiency of the national control strategy. We then use our deterministic model to explore several scenarios posterior to lock-down lifting and compare the efficiency of non pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) described in the literature. 20</p>
            </div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>France</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Reyne, Bastien" sort="Reyne, Bastien" uniqKey="Reyne B" first="Bastien" last="Reyné">Bastien Reyné</name>
</noCountry>
<country name="France"><noRegion><name sortKey="Sofonea, Mircea T" sort="Sofonea, Mircea T" uniqKey="Sofonea M" first="Mircea T." last="Sofonea">Mircea T. Sofonea</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Alizon, Samuel" sort="Alizon, Samuel" uniqKey="Alizon S" first="Samuel" last="Alizon">Samuel Alizon</name>
<name sortKey="Djidjou Demasse, Ramses" sort="Djidjou Demasse, Ramses" uniqKey="Djidjou Demasse R" first="Ramsès" last="Djidjou-Demasse">Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse</name>
<name sortKey="Elie, Baptiste" sort="Elie, Baptiste" uniqKey="Elie B" first="Baptiste" last="Elie">Baptiste Elie</name>
<name sortKey="Michalakis, Yannis" sort="Michalakis, Yannis" uniqKey="Michalakis Y" first="Yannis" last="Michalakis">Yannis Michalakis</name>
<name sortKey="Selinger, Christian" sort="Selinger, Christian" uniqKey="Selinger C" first="Christian" last="Selinger">Christian Selinger</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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   |texte=   Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France
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Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France

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